So it is has finally come to this. After Saturday’s debate,
Trump’s press conference and George W.’s campaigning, we are in a full-on slugfest
between Donald Trump and Jeb Bush.
Traditionally, in multi-candidate
field dynamics when two candidates are whacking away at each other it benefits the
other candidates. However, it is possible that in this race there will be a
different effect.
In its up and downs, and in its
entire being, this campaign has been about Donald Trump. What Jeb Bush is
attempting to do is make this race a referendum on Donald Trump. By bringing in
George W. Bush and making it so personal, Jeb Bush is saying that those who
wish to oppose Donald Trump should vote for him. He is even messaging against
Rubio and Cruz, implying that their refusal to go after Trump means they are
not worthy adversaries.
This strategy poses particular
challenges for Marco Rubio who lacks a clear plan. Cruz has mined a lane of
Christian conservatives relentlessly. Even Kasich, who is counting on doing better
in other states, still has a South Carolina strategy. He’s chasing Northern transplants
and those who want to rise above the muck. But Rubio lacks a clearly defined
group of supporters or argument. He thus is hoping to patch together a wide
swath of supporters. This is a hard strategy if the press is focused on the
battle elsewhere.
Bush and Trump clawing at each
other may not help the other candidates. As things heat up, voters may be
inclined to want to weigh in on the referendum question of Bush or Trump. That helps
Bush, even as it also helps Trump.
While we wait on more polling from
South Carolina, these are the dynamics to consider.
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