Odds: Clinton 100% Sanders Zero
Margin: Clinton 65% Sanders 35%
Delegates:
Total: Clinton 34 Sanders 19
Allocations:
1. Party Leader Elected Officials 5-2
Clinton
2. At Large 7-4 Clinton
3. 1st district 3-2 Clinton
4. 2nd 3-2 Clinton
5. 3rd 2-1 Clinton
6. 4th 3-1 Clinton
7. 5th 3-2 Clinton
8. 6th 5-3 Clinton
9. 7th 3-2 Clinton
While the winner and the basic tenor of the margin don’t
present a particularly difficult call (and have been to some degree telegraphed),
just how large the victory will be remains somewhat of a mystery.
There has been strikingly little polling conducted in South Carolina on the Democratic side since Nevada, but leads in other places have tended to be getting larger. Secretary Clinton is on track to win every district and win five splits by sufficient margin to achieve better than just the one delegate you get for a win in an odd delegate bucket.
Clinton’s best chance to exceed even these predictions would be in the 6th district, where she would require 68.75% of the vote. Her
next opportunities would be to garner 68.1% statewide and then 70 plus % in the 1st, 2nd, 5th or 7th districts. These possibilities constitute the extent of suspense. [Claw backs are possible in not cracking achieving a 3-1 split in the 4th, or getting a 5-2 split as opposed to 4-3 in the PLEO bucket.] Our call: Clinton by 15 delegates; perhaps a 20% chance she earns more than that and 15% for one or both claw backs.
Super Tuesday looms, and the chasm between the candidates has not closed.
The Scorecard
The Scorecard is a political strategy and analysis blog. Our hope is to provide information and insight that can be found nowhere else into how and why things are happening in American politics. Unlike many political pundits, we will tell you who we think is going to win as an election approaches; we will tell you why; and we will give you a sense of our level of confidence. Ours is a holistic approach, one that takes in as many numbers as possible but is also willing to look past the numbers if need be. When we turn out to have been wrong, we will let you know. When we are right, we’ll let you know that too.
Our Delegate Math
About Me
Author Jason Paul is a longtime political operative who got his start as an intern in 2002. He has been a political forecaster for almost as long. He won the 2006 Swing State Project election prediction contest and has won two other local contests. He had the pulse of Obama-Clinton race in 2008 and has been as good as anyone at delegate math in the 2016 race. He looks forwards to providing quality coverage for the remainder of the 2016 race.
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