Democratic Delegate Math for Nevada and South Carolina

So by now you likely know the drill. Democrats decide each contest proportionally with a 15% viability threshold, which is not likely to matter anymore since there are only two candidates. Combined Nevada and South Carolina hold 13 separate contests with 15 separate delegate buckets. There will be 11 district contests and each statewide result will produce two buckets of delegates based on statewide contests.

Nevada has 35 pledged delegates divided as follows: three six-delegate districts and one five-delegate district and statewide delegates divided into a group of five and a group of seven. What that means is that, barring a truly shocking outcome, each side is a lock for 13 delegates a piece. It would require 64% or greater statewide, or 68% or 70% in some districts to prevent that split. That simply will not happen. Therefore only nine of the 35 delegates are really up for grabs. Even that number might be a stretch. In the six-delegate districts, a candidate would need 58% plus and that looks increasingly unlikely. So the Nevada battle is over three delegates. The winner of the 1st district, which has five delegates, will receive an extra delegate and the winner statewide will receive two. The statewide winner gets a delegate from each of the odd-number buckets statewide.

Returning to the Cook Political Report on what Sanders needs to win, it looks like to be on pace to get enough delegates out of Nevada he’ll need to crack a six-delegate district, or get 58.33% of the vote. Because Sanders is already10 delegates behind the pace Cook says he needs, falling farther behind, even in victory, can be dangerous. The most likely outcome is that the candidates will split the delegates either 19-16 or 18-17, with either Sanders or Clinton coming out on top.

Moving to South Carolina, we can make the same judgments about the most obvious splits. South Carolina has 53 pledged delegates. South Carolina has seven districts: four five-delegate districts, one three-delegate district, one four-delegate district and one eight-delegate district. The at-large numbers are 7 and 11. Barring huge margins (larger than anything seen in public polling), each side looks locked into getting 20 delegates. This leaves 13 delegates in play: two to the statewide winner; another five, one a piece to the winner in all of the odd districts; and three cracking opportunities based off of current polling.

Without cracking anywhere, Clinton would get a 30-23 split as she seems likely to sweep the districts. The cracking opportunities are as follows. In the eight-delegate district, which also has the heaviest concentration of African Americans, the cracking number of 56.25% seems quite likely for Clinton, giving her a 5-3 delegate split. For the 11-delegate statewide group, the cracking number of 59% seems within range but not a sure thing for the Clinton campaign. The four-delegate district, which would require a cracking number of 62.5%, seems less likely for Clinton but should not be ruled out completely.

Even if the split were to stay at 30-23, which based on current polling would be a bit of an upset for Sanders, he would still fall another two delegates behind pace. Thus the most likely outcome of the next two states, even in Sanders’ best case scenario, is that he will fall another four delegates behind pace.